In a world still spinning with volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), Procurement has a vital role in helping their organisations to adapt and stay in control. 

On 2 April 2025, CASME and The Hackett Group joined forces once again for a special edition of the ‘Going for Gold’ webinar series. Led by CASME’s Graham Crawshaw, and The Hackett Group’s Nic Walden and Vicky Kavan, the session delivered practical strategies, live audience polling, and expert insights for procurement professionals navigating continued disruption.

Watch the full webinar on demand, and enjoy reading the highlights, top tips and benchmarking poll results below. Please note, this webinar was presented and recorded on ‘Liberation Day’ but before tariffs were announced by the US government.

2025 Economics: A Wake-Up Call for Procurement

If there was one message above all: this is not the time to stand still.

“It’s a completely different world out there in 2025,” explained Nic, opening a hard-hitting economic outlook segment. The conversation covered sticky inflation, geopolitical shocks, supply chain redesign, and the return of economic statecraft - with governments across the globe now using policy and tariffs as levers of trade.

In the first benchmarking poll, 56% of the audience indicated that their organisations had begun preparing for the economic and geopolitical shifts of 2025, though their strategies were still being refined. Only 8% felt very well prepared, while a modest 3% candidly admitted they had yet to start planning for the changes ahead.

The message? “You’re not behind,” reassured Graham. “Most of your peers are still working it out too.”

Live Poll: How prepared is your organisation for the economic and geopolitical changes we are experiencing in 2025?

Given the scale of change unfolding, from new tariffs announced on 2 April 2025 to shifting trade policies, it’s clear that procurement teams everywhere will be navigating uncharted territory. What matters now is not perfection, but progress.

Economic Divergence and the ‘New Normal’

Nic went on to outline the sharp contrast across regions, citing key macro-market trends from Hackett’s recent report, ‘Managing for Inflation’, available to CASME members:

• India and Asia are showing robust growth
• China is stabilising, though by their standards, 5% growth is now seen as a slowdown
• Europe continues to experience economic contraction, especially in Germany
• North America appears more resilient, but faces significant policy shifts.

He added:

“2025 might be the most economically significant year of the decade.”

For procurement, these regional differences are not just economic talking points; they translate into real and immediate challenges for sourcing, supplier management, and cost control.

For example, in:

• India, rapid growth is fuelling supplier expansion, presenting opportunities for nearshoring and diversifying supply chains; but also requiring careful vetting of new partners.
• China, stabilisation and state-backed competition mean that cost advantages may persist, but tariff risks and IP considerations now demand more rigorous contract terms and alternative supply scenarios.
• Europe, particularly Germany, rising production costs and weakening demand are prompting organisations to renegotiate terms, shorten contract cycles, or shift to more flexible frameworks with local suppliers.
• North America, recent policy shifts — including the US government’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs — are already impacting landed costs, especially for categories such as electronics, automotive components and industrial machinery. Procurement teams are now revisiting sourcing decisions that were made just months ago.

These shifts mean Procurement can no longer rely on static category strategies or one-size-fits-all sourcing models. Teams need agile processes to reassess supplier risks by region, revise total cost of ownership models, and revalidate assumptions around resilience, pricing, and capacity. The global picture has fractured, and Procurement must respond accordingly.

Scenario Planning: A Strategic Imperative

At the core of the discussion was a repeatable, forward-looking response: scenario planning. In today’s world, historical data alone is no longer enough.

“We can’t rely on historical category management expertise,” observed Vicky. “What worked last time might not work now – or in the future.”

Procurement teams need to explore potential outcomes, model costs, and adapt strategies accordingly.

“There are no procurement professionals who’ve operated under these exact conditions before,” she added. “We’re all learning together.”

From inflation drivers and supply disruption to currency shifts and commodity cycles, scenario planning is fast becoming a must-have skill for modern procurement.

Live Poll: Which economic scenarios do you consider to be more likely in the next 12-24 months?
(Select all that apply)

Thoughts about the economic outlook among procurement professionals in the live audience is notably cautious:

• Stagflation, as characterised by low growth and high inflation, emerged as the most likely scenario for the next 12–24 months. This reflects a growing concern that the global economy may remain sluggish, while input costs, wage pressures and interest rates remain elevated.
• Fears of significant geopolitical shocks is prevalent, leading to complex challenges including trade tensions, military conflict, political instability, and supply chain blockages.

The mood? Confidence is down; realism is rising.

This shift marks a departure from previous polling, where optimism around recovery was more prevalent. As Nic explained, many organisations are adjusting their assumptions in light of recent events, including new tariff policies, ongoing supply chain disruption, and unpredictable policy moves across major economies.

For Procurement, this more grounded outlook means scenario planning is no longer a ‘nice to have’. It’s now essential for teams to build flexibility into their strategies, revisit risk exposure, and adopt more agile approaches to sourcing, contracting and budgeting.

As Vicky put it: “Don’t try to predict what will happen — plan for what could.”

Economic Statecraft, Tariffs and Global Supply Chain Strategy

Coinciding with the webinar was ‘Liberation Day’, the moment the US administration announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Whether popular or not, the return of hardline trade policy is reshaping sourcing models.

Nic outlined the US’s new economic strategy:

• Achieve GDP growth of more than 3%
• Reduce national debt and deficits
• Restructure supply chains and bring manufacturing back onshore.

China and the European Union have announced growth and resilience agendas of their own, focused on innovation, energy independence, and securing raw materials.

“If we respond to these changes reactively, we’ll be blown around in the wind,” cautioned Nic. “Procurement needs to rise above the noise and see the bigger picture.”

This will necessitate moving from firefighting to foresight: understanding not just what's happening today, but where policies, markets and suppliers are heading next. It’s about anticipating disruption, not just reacting to it. Procurement teams must step into a more strategic role; one that shapes decisions, guides resilience planning, and helps their businesses navigate confidently through uncertainty.

Top Procurement Concerns for 2025

When asked which geopolitical risks and opportunities pose the greatest concern for Procurement, three clear priorities emerged from the audience:

1. Economic statecraft – including tariffs, shifting regulation, and increasingly politicised trade policy
2. War and cybersecurity threats – from physical conflicts to growing concern over cyberattacks and misinformation
3. Supply chain redesign – driven by the need for greater resilience, cost control, and regional diversification.

Live Poll: From your perspective, which geopolitical risks and opportunities are you most concerned about for procurement and supply chains?
(Select your top three)

These concerns reflect the evolving nature of Procurement’s role: no longer just about buying better, but about navigating systemic global risks. The pace of policy change and growing trade friction are already altering sourcing decisions, and, in some cases, forcing contract renegotiations or supplier exits. The heightened awareness around cybersecurity and geopolitical instability also signals the need for closer collaboration between Procurement, Legal, Risk and IT functions.

Interestingly, climate and ESG considerations ranked lower in this poll; not because they have lost importance, but because many teams are currently consumed by more immediate, commercial threats. 

Procurement must keep one eye on long-term strategic objectives and cannot ignore the short-term shocks shaping day-to-day decisions.

A Rising Opportunity: India

India’s rise as a manufacturing and innovation hub was a clear theme. With government investment in ports, railways and logistics, and global OEMs increasing their presence, procurement teams should be assessing India as a possible strategic sourcing option.

What Should Procurement Be Doing Now?

The panel closed with a practical checklist to help procurement leaders take control:

1. Prioritise your biggest contracts – Focus effort where impact is highest
2. Use cost models – Understand how cost drivers are changing
3. Identify savings opportunities – Reopen contracts, engage incumbents, apply market intelligence
4. Run scenario planning workshops – Test responses to volatility and inflation
5. Use strategic tools – SWOT, make vs buy, Porter’s Five Forces
6. Model Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) – Look beyond unit price to long-term value
7. Invest in strategic supplier relationships – Build trust, resilience and innovation.

Be the Customer of Choice

“Being the customer of choice has never been more important,” emphasised Vicky. “Suppliers don’t have all the answers either – working through the options together is essential.”

In today’s environment of labour shortages, shifting trade routes and supplier consolidation, organisations that invest in strategic supplier relationships are more likely to secure capacity, gain early insights, and benefit from innovation. Collaboration is no longer a soft skill; it’s a competitive advantage.

Look Beyond Payment Terms

“We’re all under pressure from the CFO,” added Graham. “But simply extending payment terms isn’t always a win – it can damage supplier partnerships.”

Short-term tactics such as delayed payments may ease cashflow, but they can backfire, eroding goodwill, pushing up prices, or even jeopardising supply continuity. Instead, procurement leaders are being encouraged to look at total cost of ownership, build trust through transparency, and work with suppliers to identify mutual value.

Use AI with Purpose

While AI continues to dominate headlines, the panel offered a realistic view of its current role.

“AI is a must-do,” Vicky noted. “But it won’t outweigh all the macroeconomic pressures. It’s about productivity, not a silver bullet.”

Procurement teams are beginning to use AI for forecasting, market analysis and contract insights, but its value lies in augmenting decisions, not replacing judgement. In a world of complexity, technology is an enabler, but human strategy still leads.

Final Word

Procurement in 2025 is not just about cost. It’s about control, clarity and creating commercial value. As the CASME–Hackett webinar made clear, procurement professionals must become analysts, strategists and partners – all at once.

The VUCA world isn’t going away. But with the right tools, mindset and supplier relationships, Procurement is well placed to go for gold.

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For a conversation or a copy of the slides, please contact: carolyn.blake@casme.com