During an exclusive CASME member briefing, leading economist Professor Simon Evenett joined me to explore supplier pricing, force majeure, category strategy and the practical steps organisations should be taking as disruption continues across global markets.

As the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect global trade routes and energy markets, procurement leaders are increasingly asking what this means for suppliers, contracts and category strategies.

The discussion generated a series of practical questions from CASME members. Below are some of the key insights from that conversation.

Key Procurement Takeaways

• Plan for disruption lasting 12–18 months, not weeks.
• Challenge supplier price increase requests with evidence and transparency.
• Review force majeure clauses and contract protections.
• Map supplier, contract and category exposure now.
• Build geopolitical risk into category strategies and response planning.
• Strengthen supplier relationships, monitoring and resilience capabilities.

One of the things I value most about the CASME community is our ability to bring members together with leading experts to discuss the issues that matter right now — without any suppliers, sponsors or sales agendas influencing the conversation.

On 13 May, CASME members joined Professor Simon Evenett, one of the world's leading economists and geopolitical analysts, to focus on the ongoing Middle East conflict, disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and what this could mean for indirect procurement over the coming months.

The timing could not have been more relevant.

While headlines continue to focus on geopolitical developments, our members were able to ask direct questions in a safe, peer-led environment and explore the practical implications for procurement teams. The discussion generated questions covering supplier pricing, force majeure, contract strategies, geopolitical risk in procurement, supply chain disruption, procurement resilience and procurement response planning.

The Strait of Hormuz situation highlights the growing importance of geopolitical risk in procurement, and the need for stronger procurement risk management and supplier risk management capabilities across organisations of all sizes. Organisations that can identify exposure early and respond quickly will be better positioned to manage both cost and continuity risks.

How Long Should Procurement Teams Plan for Strait of Hormuz Disruption?

This was one of the first questions raised by CASME members during the session, and Simon's answer was clear:

"Procurement teams should be planning for 12–18 months of potential disruption rather than assuming this will be resolved in the near term." 
— Professor Simon Evenett

Ongoing uncertainty around shipping routes, energy markets and regional stability means organisations should be considering the medium-term implications for budgets, sourcing decisions, supplier negotiations and category strategies today.

For procurement leaders, this means moving beyond immediate cost pressures and incorporating disruption scenarios into their planning processes.

Are Suppliers Justified in Requesting Price Increases?

Some suppliers are facing genuine cost pressures, while others may use uncertainty as leverage during negotiations.

Members also asked how procurement teams should respond to supplier requests for price increases linked to the Middle East conflict.

My advice was straightforward: challenge unsupported claims, seek transparency and understand precisely which costs are being impacted.

This is where supplier risk management, benchmarking, audit rights and market intelligence become increasingly important. Procurement teams that can distinguish genuine cost inflation from opportunistic pricing will be in a much stronger position to protect value and support business stakeholders.

How Should Geopolitical Risk Be Built Into Category Strategies?

Procurement teams should focus on resilience, flexibility and preparedness rather than trying to predict every possible outcome.

Members were keen to understand how geopolitical risk in procurement should influence category planning and longer-term sourcing decisions.

Simon highlighted that today's risks are rarely isolated events. They are interconnected and often affect multiple business functions simultaneously.

This means procurement leaders should focus less on forecasting every outcome and more on building procurement resilience and organisational response capabilities.

For category managers, this may involve reviewing sourcing strategies, assessing supplier concentration, understanding logistics dependencies and strengthening procurement response planning.

For many organisations, this also represents an opportunity to revisit their indirect procurement strategy and ensure it reflects the realities of an increasingly volatile global environment.

What Should Procurement Teams Do First?

Procurement teams should begin by mapping supplier, contract and category exposure to identify where disruption could create cost increases, service continuity issues or supply risks.

Perhaps the most practical question asked during the session was also the simplest: what should procurement do first?

My recommendation was to understand which suppliers, contracts and categories are most vulnerable to disruption and to review the contractual protections already available.

This includes:

• Force majeure clauses
• Indexation mechanisms
• Benchmarking provisions
• Notice periods
• Exit options.

Many organisations improved visibility and risk awareness during the pandemic. The same principles apply today. Procurement teams need a clear understanding of where disruption could affect costs, service continuity or supply chain performance.

The earlier these conversations take place, the more options organisations will have available.

Why These Discussions Matter

These are exactly the types of conversations that make the CASME community unique.

Our members gain direct access to recognised experts, practical peer insights, benchmarking data and the opportunity to ask questions that may not be possible in more public forums.

A particular thank you to Professor Simon Evenett for sharing his expertise and engaging directly with member questions. The quality of discussion reinforced just how valuable it is for procurement professionals to have direct access to recognised experts while events are unfolding, rather than relying solely on headlines or retrospective analysis.

The insights generated during the session remain highly relevant as procurement teams continue to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain disruption.

Sessions like this demonstrate the value of combining expert analysis with real-world procurement experience and peer discussion.

A Preview of the Discussion

One of the themes explored during the session was how procurement teams should respond to disruption and supplier risk.

I've shared a short video discussing one of the key insights from the session and its implications for procurement teams.

The full recording of this session, including Professor Simon Evenett's analysis and all member questions and answers, is available exclusively to CASME members through the CASME Resource Centre.

Want to Stay Ahead of Procurement Disruption?

CASME members gain access to expert briefings, peer-led discussions, benchmarking, research and practical procurement insights in a supplier-free environment where procurement professionals can openly discuss challenges and learn from one another.

The discussion summarised above represents only part of the session. Via the Resource Centre, CASME members can access:

• The complete webinar recording
• All member Q&A discussions
• Presentation materials and supporting resources
• Additional expert briefings and procurement insights.

To learn more about CASME membership and how we help procurement teams navigate complex challenges, contact our team.